19/10/2008 Update
It had been month’s since I last post anything here… I promised i’ll be more active in the coming days… wait for my update on the current state of GBP/USD..
It had been month’s since I last post anything here… I promised i’ll be more active in the coming days… wait for my update on the current state of GBP/USD..
Salam and a Happy New Year to all muslims… yesterday was the first day of the new year 1429 Hijrah.. let’s pray to Allah that this new year will bring us much blessing from Him… got a sad news… my notebook got fried by lightning… and I had sent it to be repaired.. I do hope it can be repaired in a weeks time… I’ll update on my trading system when I got my notebook back….
Pheeewww…. I had been months.. and finally my site is finally running again.. I had forgotten that my renewal fee was due in October 2007.. and on that month I had spend all my money during the eid-mubarak… hehehehehehe.. now that i’m back I felt relieved and I got some new tricks up my sleeves.. hehhehe keep on tune..
Here my update on what is happening with GBP/USD yesterday and today from Elliot Wave perspective. This could still be a wave 1 pattern because from what i’ve learned.. wave 1 could unfold in two type of formation… one is the straight impulse wave down.. and the other one is the leading diagonal formation.. so in this pattern the minor wave 4 formation can overlap the minor wave 1 top.
The first of the minor wave is straight down from 2.0652 till 2.0181. Then the price had made a 3 wave pattern which had ended at 2.0462.. I take that wave as minor wave 2 formation.. then the decline from 2.0462 till 2.0155 is considered as wave 3. Yesterday’s movement is the wave 4 and had unfolded in a simple 1 wave formation (the rules of alternation is not broken here because wave 2 had unfolded in 3 wave sequence whereas the wave 4 pattern is one solid wave) so today is the end of the 5 wave pattern.. we are now at the wave 5.. let see if i’m correct.. if the price broke higher than 2.04 then my counting will be void….
When I look back at the chart.. I just remembered that in wave 1 it could make an impulsive wave or a 5 wave Leading Diagonal formation.. if you draw a trendline from the top 2.0652 and then to the top 2.0462 (wave B or 2) the uptrend for today seemed to be contained by the trendline.. Technically this could still be in the wave 1 formation.. Price had made 4 wave formations already.. if the price today retreated and made a new low then we could still be on our way down…
Based on my analysis at Daily chart I had come up with this :-
Wave 1 or A started at 2.0652 and had ended at 2.0181
Wave 2 or B started at 2.0181 and I predict that it’ll end today after making a 3 wave minor correction (abc).
Wave 3 or C is starting….. stay tuned..
It’s been a long time since I last write in my blog.. just waiting for the final wave to reverse… and I do think that this is it… the end of a 5 wave sequence which had started from
1.9622 - 1.9781 (wave 1)
1.9781 - 1.9656 (wave 2)
1.9656 - 2.0205 (wave 3)
2.0205 - 2.0055 (wave 4)
2.0055 - 2.0652 (wave 5)
so look for corrective wave or an impulse wave down from now…
If you look at the weekly chart… the current rally looks like it’s an impulse wave… judging by the weekly cs.. I do think that this is a weekly wave 3 unfolding.. the key here is if the price can rally up and broke the high of this year 2.0132 and continues higher..
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Last night cable didn’t make a reversal formation but looks like that at this level the support is quite strong.. and in my opinion this cannot be a wave 3 down simply because wave 3 should be the strongest wave.. with little or no retracement whatsoever.. and today’s cs had broken the top of yesterday’s high and had made a rally to the top… while it is still inside the body of last friday’s cs it is still a risk to trade.. but for me I had opened a long post at 9707 this morning.. I’m thinking that my alternate count can be used.. let’s hope the price can break 9780 for a confirmation of this..